OK so I kinda want to do a retrospective on this season and center my thoughts before final tribal starts, because i don't want some of my opinions tainted by the ultimate outcome. Regardless of who wins this season, i think there are some lessons to be learned here both as a host, and as player/viewer of ORGs.
For years we've seen the take that it's time for survivor to do a back to basics season and throw the players off their game with no idols or advantages on the island. The issue with this kind of a format change is that it relies super heavily on good casting, and it also relies on the viewers understanding the risks that come with the original format of survivor. Without advantages, without idols, the game heavily favors the majority alliance and limits the game moves players on the bottom can make. In an ideal world, we would be able to see those players on the bottom be able to swing some votes to their side (think Sean/Vecepia/Kathy/Neleah/Paschal from marquesas) and take control over their enemies. However, that requires the majority alliance to be sloppy with their social game, letting players know that they're on the bottom and incentivizing them to flip. That brings me to my reflections on this game.
In my opinion, we had a colorful cast of characters that could stand up to the no twist format of the season. I think every player delivered some great TV moments throughout the game, with the exception of our inactive. Where the season started down a bad trajectory was the absolute decimation of Kallpa in the premerge. Losing every challenge really puts them at a strong numbers disadvantage, and makes the merge game that much more difficult for themselves. An added layer to this is that the Anchas had never voted by the time merge rolled around, and every game i've ever played the first vote is where players are the most cautious. It was a perfect storm to put our game on a path to a pagonging.
One thing that i think really worked against the second half of the game is the viewers investment in the Kallpa tribe. We saw blindsides, we saw strategy, we saw OTT personality at those early Kallpa tribals, so when they wound up as our lovable underdogs at the merge it made the straightforward Ancha v Kallpa narrative hurt that much more. Now, as we saw the game was more complex that green vs yellow, but those first two rounds of the merge really made the chances of any sort of flip or uprising that much more difficult. The stranglehold the stoners had over the other Anchas at this point in the game stopped all moves in their tracks. Think how exciting that first vote would have been if Shan knew deshawn was throwing his vote and was able to flip as she had wanted to? Think about the fallout we would have seen from Abe if everything didnt go his way? already we're looking at a more intense and interesting season. But that's not what we got.
As those opening merge rounds played out, the hosts did our usual bit asking the players if the game was as simple as it appears. Is it a basic pagogning? should the Kallpas just pack up now? And in confessional all the Anchas were telling us no, it wasn't that simple. but they werent willing to be the ones to hop off the bandwagon and make a move yet. That is, until JR won the final 9 immunity and started stirring shit up with heather and sara. This round was incredible, and in my opinion this is where the season peaked. Sara learned the hard way that Abe was immediately spilling any information she shared with him. he got caught by shan AND heather doing the same thing that round. He was a mess, and JR saw his opportunity. He gathered numbers in Shan/Leslie, Heather/Sara, and himself. Now the problem here was JR had tried to get numbers on previous votes as well and got played, which led Leslie and Shan to think he was bluffing here. And when Abe came around (more calmly now) and lured Shan back in, it convinced her and Leslie to vote for Sara at 9, essentially neutering any chance the outsiders had to make a move without the help of Xander and Evvie. It was devastating to watch all that work get flushed down the drain, but was also a thrilling spectacle.
From here the next few votes were straightforward. Heather had been on the outs at old Ancha beach and gets knifed for being a flipper. Shan follows shortly after when Abe realizes he doesnt need her vote anymore and knifes one of his soldiers that saved his life at the final 9. All this time the prevailing narrative is that the power structure of the game is Abe/Evvie/Deshawn, and because of this a lot of people hone in on deshawn as the one playing the cleanest game. The stoners decide to knife him before he can become a real winner threat, and we're left at the final 5 with the stoner alliance and the two leftover Kallpa members who have been pretty much dragged around by the majority alliance despite their best efforts to make a move.
Now, the endgame tends to be where we see loyalties disintegrate because players are self interested and want to take the crown and cash prize for themselves, but this season despite JR and Leslie's best efforts, Evvie and Xander stay loyal to the stoners despite being aware that the perception of the game is that Abe has controlled the entire merge. On top of this, as JR/Leslie called out multiple times, Abe had been the strongest consistent challenge competitor all game and could likely win out. This warning was not taken by Xander and Evvie, and lo and behold Abe wins out to the final tribal. It's hard to say whether the two of them would have been better off in the final 4 with JR (who is also a good challenge competitor), but there was probably a higher chance of them beating him than they had of beating Abe. Leslie, while an angel, was not going to be a threat to either of them in the challenges. Based on how the discussions around votes are going, Evvie will likely leave and Xander will be dragged to the final 2.
So here we are, looking down the barrel at the final 2 of Abe and Xander, and there is a very clear distinction between their games despite being together from day one. Abe has been visible, controlling, paranoid, and aggressive. Xander has been more social, more kind, and more passive to the point where many people on the jury think he has done nothing. Really this vote will come down to whether the jury can stomach giving Abe the win, and he isn't doing himself any favors with how he plans to show them his fake idols. IF Xander wins, I think it will be because Abe alienated almost the entire jury in his quest for complete control. If he loses, well thats just expected based on his agency in the game. The jury seems to recognize the disparity between both of their games, but their emotions are also making it very difficult to accept an abe win.
So what did we learn? Early game domination without a swap really kills momentum in a season like this. Without powers and advantages for the underdogs, we need to rely solely on social maneuvering, which can be difficult to pull off. It also really highlights how crucial it is to find the moment to make a move. In this case, the final 11, 10, and 9 votes set this game on a course for stoner domination. Once in control, Evvie and Xander really only had the final 5 vote to decide whether they wanted to risk letting JR any closer to the end, or if they take their chances with Abe. Other than those few inflection points, the game was domin
Abed by the tightest trio in the game.
All in all, I had a fun time watching this season, even if the strategy and trajectory of the game got stale and predictable around the final 8. As far as stranded seasons go it would probably be near the bottom of my rankings since I've been part of the community. I think a lot of this cast would do much better on a second time out, especially given how few of them had any kind of previous ORG experience. Top of my list to return would be JR, Jamie, Shan, Sara, Leslie, and Deshawn. All of them showed promise to me, and I think would shine even brighter on a second chance.
As for the stoners? I hope they smoke a fat bowl and calm the fuck down post season. I think a less aggressive version of their personalities would probably be pleasant to interact with on the stranded discord.
Thats all for now.
Kisses,
Danni
