[Loveita Adams]

DAY 15 UPDATES

Deshawn has won individual immunity in the Numb3r5 challenge, where the three OG Kallpa were immediately targeted (after a lucky snipe of Heather from Leslie). 

The Big Picture

• CHAT STATS: For Day 15, players sent 2 messages through group chats and 2790 private messages. (to be updated at 8pm EST)
• I would say to expect a slower weekend but we already saw a spiral out of Abraham last night when managing conversations between Shan and Xander.
• Shan is most willing to work with the OG Kallpas at this vote - will they be able to keep another Kallpa from getting picked off?
• The next MAJOR EVENT is at the end of the weekend! DAY 18 - SUNDAY, with tribal council at 8C/9E! 

Confessional Quotes

 

Abraham spiraled again last night, as I teased. There's too much from the chats to summarize but basically, he needs to have full control over everything anyone says...to the point where he and Xander acted out an entire fake conversation for 30 minutes to send the transcript to Shan. He might flip on the Ancha? Who knows, but this was where his head was at last night:

 Right now Xander is making a fucking mess of things with Shan. The whole problem is, Shan is ready to flip to the Kallpa 3 and I'm trying to explain to Xander that while Evvie is unsure of where her place is in the game, she might be looking for a place to go. If Shan and Evvie both realize each other are in the same position, they flip to the Kallpa 3 and it's over for what we've built. Right now I'm trying to just damage control the hell out of this conversation but Xander keeps digging us into a bigger hole.

I honestly had such a perfect position with Shan and the ability to choose where she goes and now Xander is blowing up my spot. He just had to get involved in my conversation with Shan. This is honestly such a mess, I have no idea how I'm going to recover this now. I basically have no option but to go with Shan and flip to the Kallpa 3. God damn it, sometimes these people don't realize what they're doing.

Deshawn doesn't think that Jaime leaving was the right call for his game, which is why he threw his vote on Leslie to keep Ancha antsy. He isn't sure how to manage his more unique position with the remaining Kallpa:

I think that meeting Kallpa a day early put me in a weird position where, I did enjoy the advantage of talking to them before the mess that was the merge because it allowed for more normal conversations and we had more time to get to know each other. So in that aspect, I think that was an advantage for me going into the merge. 

On the flip side of that, it also kinda made me Kallpa's "go to" person to figure out what was going on and that was a weird position to be in. I didn't want to lose everything I built with Ancha for 12 days by just opening the whole  playbook to Kallpa, but they're also not stupid so there's only so many times & ways we can delay telling them. Like, people ignoring them for a whole day at a time or pretending we have "no idea" who we're voting for when the 7 of us are in a chat room together at the same time is ridiculous. Its one thing that they're outnumbered but there's no reason to make them feel like idiots. 

 

Evvie isn't sure if they trust anyone right now and doesn't feel there is a huge move they need to leap at to make. However, they're worried inaction or lack of social capital could cost them longterm:

 I think that I would have wanted Erik to go because he's like a ghost to me. A player that I know exists but also doesn't say a fucking word to me at all and I'm not in the place where I feel like I need to extend my hand across and bend over backwards. It's also good to have those types of players because you always got to have someone that you can target since you can't kill everyone off immediately. He's still here, I hope he goes next but I think it depends on having numbers to do that and right now, idk if I have the pull in order to make that move happen which kinda blows me. I threw it out there, and it fell on deaf ears but like, I don't want someone around who willingly doesn't want to work with me. Hell, Sara kinda falls into that category as well and I'm reluctantly keeping her around - I would not be surprised if she was my fucking downfall.

Heather wasn't happy about the early elimination from the challenge (literally first guess, ouch) and is trying to figure out who on Ancha voted for...her? She thinks Jaime might have voted for the Leslie vote:

Currently, I'm blindfolded and I've been tasked with solving a puzzle. Certain pieces feel like they get together and others don't. To me, it seems like certain pieces fit together just oh so perfectly but to the person watching me, they can see that I've just awkwardly jammed two pieces together to make them fit even though that is incorrect. 

Initially, I believed the person who cast the rogue vote against me was Sara as she had every reason to try and flip the vote on me. However, 'nice girls finish last' is what Sara claims she said to Jaime and that's something I can see Sara saying. Idk, she's just corny like that. 

I truly do not believe it was Shan or Abe which means it was either Deshawn or Evvie and, despite my relationship with Evvie in the past, Shan has made me aware that Evvie views me as a 'wildcard' and wants to work with Deshawn and Abe. She and JR were obviously whispering to each other and they were clearly talking about something. 

Jean-Robert has got stuff cooking. The one thing we can rely on him for is that he is not going to go down without a fight. Apart from his misread on Heather, he has a pretty good understanding of the dynamics:

I think that Deshawn, Abe, Heather, and Evvie are the inner core of Ancha. I’ve come to this conclusion because Leslie and I are sitting online right now and none of them are talking to us, yet they are all staying online. I need to convince Shan to put aside her Xander/Sara vote out urges for now and bring attention to this. I need to get one of these four out if I want to stay in this game long term. Ideally, it would be Heather and if not her, Abe, but I need to be very careful about how I navigate this. I don’t trust Xander and Sara, but we need them for this vote. That is my top priority right now, getting them on board to vote Heather. Well that’s my priority behind winning immunity tonight. If Leslie and I can make this happen, I truly think we can control our own destiny for the rest of this game, we can go with Shan and get Xander/Sara, we can turn it on Shan to Xander/Sara, or my personal favorite, we get get rid of this entire inner core I’ve made up. Deshawn, Abe, and Evvie. If I can outlast these three players, I deserve to win this game.

Leslie had a good conversation with Xander, but it was contradicted by a later conversation with Shan, so Leslie is just looking to exploit the cracks, but thinks that Jean-Robert's abrasiveness is going to cost her:

JR is going to freaking make me lose it. He NEEDS to stop freaking out. He made that challenge ALL about him. When they could have paid attention to the fact that they were saying each others names! Like Sarah, literally got out two of the most popular people. UGHHHHHH

Shan has a hoodie for her cat. Oh, sorry, were we still talking about the game? Go check her convos with Abraham and Xander from last night! 

bruh Abe is giving me a MIGRAINE.  I swear to god he talks to me when he's high, says stuff, then forgets he said anything like it, and then makes me feel like I'M the crazy one

Xander was involved in all of Abe's freakout last night - what are his thoughts? We don't know yet. He hasn't told us. I might actually update this post later if/when he does! 

[Loveita Adams]

Day 19 updates - I went on vacation to a hellscape where internet is unavailable and mobile data is limited. 

Today, I write to you on my phone from a Target Starbucks, where the wifi is so bad that I can't even get this website to load on my laptop. What dark age of society have I regressed to? Please help. I feel...Stranded. 

Anyways, Erik went out in 10th in what I think was an 8-1-1 vote, with Shan prevoting Xander and Erik voting Heather. Only 2 OG Kallpa are left...will the slaughter finally stop for a round or two?

I'm sure there are tons of great confessional updates, but I haven't been able to read any of them. Go do it for me and post the juicy stuff in here. Thanks  

[Danni Boatwright]

Today, I write to you on my phone from a Target Starbucks, where the wifi is so bad that I can't even get this website to load on my laptop. What dark age of society have I regressed to? Please help. I feel...Stranded. 

Babe just use your phone as a hotspot I promise its better than relying on shitty public wifi

[Loveita Adams]

Today, I write to you on my phone from a Target Starbucks, where the wifi is so bad that I can't even get this website to load on my laptop. What dark age of society have I regressed to? Please help. I feel...Stranded. 

Babe just use your phone as a hotspot I promise its better than relying on shitty public wifi

Gurl u missed the "limited mobile data" issue otherwise this spot would have been hot all last night

[Loveita Adams]

THE UPDATES WILL CONTINUE! #vacationedition 

This time, I write to you connected to the Wi-Fi network at the local high school where my dad's head of security. Discord might be blocked here, but Stranded isn't! 

Jean-Robert won immunity last night after getting 10 out of 13 possible points in Touchy Subjects, proving that the outsiders sometimes have the best perspective as to what's happening in game. 

With his immunity win, he got a little aggressive in putting targets on Ancha members, hoping that they won't just default to Leslie as a vote. This apparently REALLY sent Abraham into a spiral, and if you want some entertainment, definitely check out their conversation last night, where JR is unbothered and Abraham is...very bothered. Just...check out Abraham's chat logs in general. It's an adventure. 

Jean-Robert's target looks like it might be Deshawn, but Deshawn doesn't want to see JR or Leslie go in the next couple of votes:

Next round won't be a Kallpa I can already promise you that and I'll make sure the one after isn't either. They want to play the game and they deserve to without being taken out simply because they came into a merge without the numbers. It's a numbers game and there's still 2 of them, willing and able to help make the moves that need to be made to make it to the end. I don't care if some people don't see that. I'm not letting that opportunity slip between my fingers. And that's exactly why I'm keeping a good relationship with them. 

Evvie is still looking towards the spiral stoners as their primary connections and is focused on getting Sara out next if at all possible:

I know that Sara has not thrown my name out yet...or at least over the last few weeks it sounds like but she would be my first because she's the furthest away from trying to work with me. Then I think we clip a Kallpa, clip another Ancha. That leaves one OG Kallpa, right now preferably Leslie because she's harmless to me, and then the remaining Anchas - at that point, hopefully it's me, Xander, Deshawn, and Abraham. Heather or Shan would need to go and normally I would say that Heather would be the person to take the hit, but I feel like Shan is playing a lot harder than I want her to get credit for sitting at the end. I would like to clip her. But focusing on the next move, Sara would be it for me. I think that if I talk to the right people, my alliance(s), then I could swing it. I wonder if it would be kept quiet though.

Heather got called the biggest goat who might be voted out next, but hasn't confessed about how she feels about that. In chats it looks like she's repairing relationships with Jean-Robert and Sara, while continuing to have a tight relationship with Shan, but stay tuned for her own updates on what she's thinking moving forward. 

Jean-Robert is a monster, self-declared, and in the best kind of way. Watch his video for the dirty deets. Rocking his individual immunity chain and figuring out how to break down the Ancha wall and get some respect on his name. He's got his eyes on Deshawn or Abraham. 

As the other Kallpa remaining, Leslie is not as happy with everything Jean-Robert is trying to do, worried that she could become collateral damage. Sara is her target:

The big issue right now, is the fact that JR is saying lets go with Deshawn. It doesn't seem like Deshawn makes sense, because everyone loves and thinks they can work with Deshawn. Personally, I don't think this idea will work. my gut says that they will end up voting out me or Heather and keeping it easy. This would have been a much easier merge if JR hadn't met them early. Because it built up his ego and he seems to think that no one else realizes what is going on. Did he not see that I got second place? I know the call was to count his late answer, but if we consider that he didn't actually meet that expectation, he won by one and I second guessed on who is going out next. I thought they would go with the easy answer. So yeah, he won, but not by much. So I don't know why he is speaking to me like I am two years old and don't realize that the three are in charge. Like no shit. But none of the other people are willing to play hard yet. So go with what they are saying. Make them feel in control for one vote, and after we can start making big moves

 Sara wants to target Shan or Evvie, but things got crazy last night with Abraham and Jean-Robert:

oh my god im getting COOKED right now. Fucking JR comes to me, says he would like to vote out Dehsawn or Abe, cool, ill humor him and use this info to lock up my relationship with Dehshawn, we can use that info to blindside Shan/Evvie/Leslie and weaken JR significantly cause he has immunity right now. Abe comes to me, says he hears my name going around, and hes just so squirelly won't tell me where he heard it from, so Abe is sketching me out a little bit. I tell him as he told me, "because you are a friend, you cannot tell anyone what I am about to tell you, it will fuck my game" all good so I thought, I tell him JR came to me with either Abe/Deshawns name in hand, and what does the mohterfucker do?? Turns around and tells JR FUCKING IMMEDIATELY, like Abe what the actual fuck?? You told me you hate this guy and don't talk game to him at all and you fucking blow up my spot instantly, now im doing fucking damage control with JR, I don't know if I can trust you, and I don't know if Deshawn is even going to believe if I tell him now, so fucking thanks for that. You still are a cool guy and a friend, but you really just fucked me in the game here. So im pretty fucking mad right now

Shan has been recovering from a huge storm and power outage that forced her to prevote Xander and miss the discussions for last vote. But since last night, she did ask us all: 

WOW none of you bitches wanted to let me know what a slime ball Abe is???  I am HURT

 

Xander has been dead in confessionals. He promised us a video days ago. And never delivered. #cancelled. 

[Loveita Adams]

Today's update is going to start with a math lesson. 

Say you have 9 people in the game. A vote comes out 5-3-1. If two of the people in the 5 (COUGH COUGH Leslie and Shan) flipped to work with their ally, the vote would still be...5-3-1, just with Abraham going home instead of Sara. The votes were there girls. The votes were YOU. 

The game could have broken open at Final 9 but with Leslie and Shan choosing to side with Abraham and send Sara home rather than flip on him, we're entering Final 8 with a pretty dominant alliance of Abraham, Deshawn, Evvie, and Xander, and I don't see them turning on each other until Final 6 at least. 

Some quick confessional recaps before my meeting in 20 minutes:

Abraham is an entertainment masterpiece of polarization with his unique mix of control freak and lack of self-awareness. He's the main character of the season FOR SURE, love it or hate it:

I proved that the relationships I've been building have actually meant something to people and I was able to survive a pivotal vote for our group. Any one of them would have made a great move by flipping on me and I was already planning my goodbye message. Nothing mean, just that I was excited to talk to them all after the game was over and that I'm happy my anxiety can finally rest. I ended up voting for Sara which I guess I didn't need to, and I could have probably been like Xander who voted Leslie to appease Sara on the jury. However, that's not the kind of game I'm playing. I want to make sure everyone knows I was correct on every single vote. I didn't waiver from the plans. I didn't try to get sympathy or allow someone else to dictate my route. Of course Sara gave me her cringe Catholic Sky Daddy lines and left being super bitter with me. But I'd like to think a jury of huge fans won't be bitter.

Evvie really wanted Sara out last night and got their way, but with Deshawn, Abraham, and Xander looking to target Shan next, it'll be interesting to see if they go along with it:

I've heard so many names, literally everyone's name this round be thrown about and I honestly don't know what or how I want to progress after this round, but I have got my eyes set on Sara. Abe made a joke that here Evvie goes getting their two targets in a row and I'm like ?¿ these are the things that push me off on having relationships with others because I don't need me coming across as a tyrant that I'm trying to get my way, that's not it. I'm just not about to do something like voting a Shan out to take away power from JR because that's a number I know that's firmly planted with me as a preference + I'm not ready to let go of Shan. Maybe I *am* getting my way right now, but there's nothing wrong with that~

Jean-Robert worked his ASS off to get Sara and Heather to turn on Abraham, but without the support of his closest allies, he wasn't able to make it happen. He had a great video talking through his strategy leading up to the vote yesterday. 

Leslie chose to go after Sara because she thought it would be a move she could argue, not realizing she was just matching the main Ancha alliance bootlist order in the process. Her need to differentiate herself from Jean-Robert could be her downfall:

I feel bad about getting so upset with JR, but like it drives me a bit bonkers to feel like a guy is making it sound like I am in his back pocket and don't have a brain of my own. I don't think I realized how much that bothered me until I joined this game. However, Hopefully he knows I'm not mad at HIM but think his game play is biting me in the ass and making me look stupid. Like I think the fact that he does that doesn't help people take me seriously. Hopefully doing a move that doesn't look like it's "JR's" vote will help people take me a bit more seriously. Even if Abe could have been a "bigger" move, it would have made it look like it was just JR's move. No one would have given me any credit for that.

 

Shan may have severely disappointed me by succumbing for her hate boner for Sara instead of recognizing the DANGER in keeping Abraham, but she posted a video with her Great Dane and I can't not love that.

 

[Dean Kowalski]

Say you have 9 people in the game. A vote comes out 5-3-1. If two of the people in the 5 (COUGH COUGH Leslie and Shan) flipped to work with their ally, the vote would still be...5-3-1, just with Abraham going home instead of Sara. The votes were there girls. The votes were YOU. 

 

 

 

 

 

The only acceptable math this pride month

 

[Loveita Adams]

DAY....Twentysomething...I've lost track. Vacation does that to you. 

We're down to the FINAL FOUR though, with Jean-Robert leaving in 5th in a move that (almost) all viewers hated but I really can't fault too much. The game trajectory really fell into place after Leslie and Shan fell through on the vote at Final 9. From that point on, Jean-Robert's downfall was basically inevitable. The only thing I'd actually say surprised me from F9-F4 was the Stoners blindsiding Deshawn at 6, with Jean-Robert still in the game. 

I'm not going to pull confessional quotes for this post. First of all, I'm way too behind. Second, it isn't like there is a TON for them to talk about. So I'm going to leave the objective reporting behind and do a biased breakdown on how I see the four people left, 

For better or for worse, or however it makes you feel, Abraham is the main character of the season, at least from Ancha side. We could make an argument that Jean-Robert was actually the main character, from surviving the Europe trip week 1 amidst a string of Kallpa losses, to becoming THE FORCE at merge to always persevere and try every fucking thing he could to survive. But he was always clawing up from the bottom, while Abraham has been looking down on high from his mountaintop of Stranded research and obsessive need to control everything. I can't express enough how much I wish Ancha had to go to a premerge tribal and really test some of those relationships early, especially after witnessing Abraham spiral over literally nothing. I have a begrudging respect for Abraham and the effort and time he's put into this season, but his condescending attitude in conversations and some of his blatant hypocrisy throughout has just really made it difficult for me to root for him. Unfortunately, the rest of the cast has really cornered me into it. If he makes it into the F2, I'm still not sure if I want him to win or lose it. Regardless, his plan to pull out fake idols at FTC is cringy, unnecessary, and frankly insulting to the rest of the cast, so I HOPE TO FUCK that the jury does not disappoint me by falling for it. He deserves the win through his domination this season. I can't deny that of the four remaining he has the cleanest and possibly most impressive game? I only hedge because Leslie's path here was far more difficult, even though she definitely made far more mistakes and didn't capitalize on opportunities. But more on her later. Abraham is obviously a mixed bag for me. I respect the game but I don't like the game. If he gets to FTC and acts like a condescending dick throughout, which I think is highly possible, I'll still laugh if he loses himself the game by just not making anyone WANT to vote for him. All in all, Abraham is his own worst enemy. If he gets to the end and loses, I'll blame him more than the jury. 

Evvie is the biggest cocktease. Listen, I get indecision in the end game. I've been there myself in confessional, stuck between my head and heart, overthinking jury perceptions, etc etc etc. It happens. But holy shit, dude. This has to be a whole other level? What really just confuses me about Evvie's (and Xander's, though we can get to that later) game is that it feels like they understand the perceptions of how the game unfolded and even how they might be seen but just...don't care? They let the game get to this exact point because they were part of the power the whole time, but only now seem to be waking up to how it might be a losing one for them? I don't know. Evvie's game is hard for me to articulate. They nailed the social butterfly game but with the exception of the Stoners, it all seems to have landed as coming off fake. One example? Telling Deshawn DURING TRIBAL that even though Jean-Robert is targeting him, they've got his back, fully knowing that he was leaving. And trying to throw a vote as proof, but 7 seconds late. Personally, as a player, if someone is part of a plan to blindside me, fully okays it, and all that jazz, I lose a ton of respect for them if then they throw their vote. The cast won't know until post season, but the last minute attempt to throw the vote? Even worse. Apparently last round they waited so long to vote because they still wanted the vote on Leslie instead of Jean-Robert (to beat Abraham in a challenge, I guess?), but even in Final 5, with immunity, they couldn't take control of a vote and still let Abraham take the lead. If Evvie makes it to the end, my biggest concern for them is in articulating their game in a way that doesn't use tons of cliche phrases and vague niceties. And since that's how most of their late game conversations and Tribal Council interactions have gone...I think it's likely to come out in an FTC too. Some people might argue it's just caution and looking at all angles, but it's a short drop from that to "wishy-washy", and I think that's how it might come off to the jury. Based on the unofficial AND official hate and love threads for Evvie from the lurkers, wishy washy is definitely how it's come across to many of them too.

Leslie has the underdog story and clear love from quite a few jurors, but before I start showering her with biased love and affection just for the fact she's not one of the 3 Stoners, I should make something very clear. Leslie made the worst game decisions out of everyone left. And that is real, 100%. Just being honest. Her and Jaime pre-merge were my EVERYTHING, and she played phenomenally there. But once merge hit and Jaime went out first, a huge part of Leslie left with her. And I get it, She's played almost double the game of everyone left, and I firmly believe that her premerge game was stronger than any of the other final 4's merge games. But her merge game was...not as great. And is unfortunately the only thing most of the jury knows. Articulating agency throughout the merge will be a huge issue for her if she makes the end, but she could still eke out a win through likability and the underdog story arc alone. Unfortunately, one of the few times she can actually point to as taking more agency and making the decision was at Final 9...which...yeah. Obviously she was forced into a certain approach of meekness and vulnerability through the dynamics at the merge, but at the one time where she (and Shan) really could have flipped the game on it's head, she fell into the trap that the Stoners led her into. If you want to vote for the player who played the strongest "game" then Leslie probably wouldn't be in contention, but at the same time it's hard to discount the worth of a player who would have survived literally every single tribal council of the season, potentially never being immune at any of them. If she can put together a good showing in a FTC (just don't use the model of some of her conversations with Abraham at 6), I can see her taking the win. It also helps when your ride or die new best friend for life is the Queen of Ponderosa. Which shout out to Jaime in the jury house by the way, for having some of the most accurate reads on the game I've seen all season and being the unintentional voice of many lurkers in the jury house. 

And then there's Xander. Of the Stoners, by the way, it's important to mention that he is the only true ORG newb among them, and so the fact he's probably the least game savvy of those three shouldn't be surprising. At the same time, he's done a great job all season talking to people and making people think he's with them. I spent a good amount of time in the Lurker Discord arguing with our very own John about Xander's game a couple days ago, and will mostly rehash that here, but here's my big issue. Xander's best game moves were unintentional. Early in the premerge the Stoners had the good/boring/meta satellite ally strategy of each putting attention into a specific other - Abe/Deshawn, Evvie/Shan, and Xander/Sara. And honestly, one of the funnier story arcs this season for me is how much Xander HATED Sara in the premerge and all the shit he talked while purposely getting closer to her, only to find himself unable to vote her out when it finally came time. But anyways. Xander had been doing a fine enough job getting closer to Sara, but his accidental rule breaking with the screenshot is what really cemented that duo perception for people and shaped the narrative of the trio being Abe, Evvie, and Deshawn instead. It worked out great for him, and looking paired up with Sara was definitely part of the plan all along, but I think the screenshot really HELPED him there, unintentionally. The other big thing I can point to in Xander's game is his Leslie vote at 9 when Sara left. By losing his "partner", and refusing to vote for her, suddenly the underdogs saw him as someone who should want to work with them. Being the double agent like that rarely comes with respect, though. And like I said with Evvie: Personally, as a player, if someone is part of a plan to blindside me, fully okays it, and all that jazz, I lose a ton of respect for them if then they throw their vote. We're seeing that from Sara in the jury. If Xander makes it to the end, I think he's the one player whose chances change the most depending on who he's next to and how they act in FTC. Because right now, most of the jury and a lot of the lurkers just think he existed. Relatively nonoffensively? But also not in a way that inspires people to want to vote for him. 


Out of the possible F2 pairings left, here's my preference without any FTC or jury questioning to see:
ABRAHAM VS EVVIE: I'm not really sure how this F2 would come about since I think both would prefer to take Xander, but I'll begrudgingly support Abraham here but hope for a pretty split vote. More than anything, I would be watching for the entertainment factor of hopefully seeing the jury berate them and get all their bitter energy out. 
ABRAHAM VS LESLIE: Honestly, for the past week or so, my dream ending has been for this to be the Final 2 and for Leslie to beat Abraham. Some people might cry that Abraham deserves it so much more than Leslie, blah blah blah, but I would live for this Samoa style punch to the ego. I don't think this F2 is at ALL likely though. 
ABRAHAM VS XANDER: If Abraham wins out, this is the F2 I expect. And like Abe vs Evvie, I'll begrudgingly support Abraham here but would maybe be hoping a little stronger for Abraham to blow the FTC and lose the game for himself. It's not that I think Xander deserves the win more than Evvie, probably the opposite. That's why it'd be funnier if the jury gave it to Xander over Abraham in this situation. 
EVVIE VS LESLIE: Oh Leslie all the way. Not even close. But I can see Evvie putting out a pretty traditional, strong FTC and getting key votes from that alone. 
EVVIE VS XANDER: I honestly don't know what I want here. Or what happens here. Worst of all, this is probably what we're getting if Abraham chokes either of the next two challenges.
LESLIE VS XANDER: Oh Leslie all the way. Not even close. And honestly? I'm not sure I have a whole ton of faith in Xander to be able to nail a strong counter FTC to get enough votes against Leslie, but I could be wrong. 

This season overall has had some great moments and INCREDIBLE characters. Back to basics paid off. I think the season suffered from the pre-merge blowout for sure, since we lost some great people too early on Kallpa, and really set the trajectory of the season. Can you imagine Aaron in the merge? Ugh. And then after that, a couple of small windows of opportunity were blown, and the steamroll train really just chugged it along and brought the season down a bit for rankings. It's technically not over, but it's seemed pretty over since Final 9. But I guess we'll see! Who knows, maybe Leslie turns into a challenge beast and wins out? A girl can dream. 

[Danni Boatwright]

Out of the possible F2 pairings left, here's my preference without any FTC or jury questioning to see:
ABRAHAM VS EVVIE: I'm not really sure how this F2 would come about since I think both would prefer to take Xander, but I'll begrudgingly support Abraham here but hope for a pretty split vote. More than anything, I would be watching for the entertainment factor of hopefully seeing the jury berate them and get all their bitter energy out. 
ABRAHAM VS LESLIE: Honestly, for the past week or so, my dream ending has been for this to be the Final 2 and for Leslie to beat Abraham. Some people might cry that Abraham deserves it so much more than Leslie, blah blah blah, but I would live for this Samoa style punch to the ego. I don't think this F2 is at ALL likely though. 
ABRAHAM VS XANDER: If Abraham wins out, this is the F2 I expect. And like Abe vs Evvie, I'll begrudgingly support Abraham here but would maybe be hoping a little stronger for Abraham to blow the FTC and lose the game for himself. It's not that I think Xander deserves the win more than Evvie, probably the opposite. That's why it'd be funnier if the jury gave it to Xander over Abraham in this situation. 
EVVIE VS LESLIE: Oh Leslie all the way. Not even close. But I can see Evvie putting out a pretty traditional, strong FTC and getting key votes from that alone. 
EVVIE VS XANDER: I honestly don't know what I want here. Or what happens here. Worst of all, this is probably what we're getting if Abraham chokes either of the next two challenges.
LESLIE VS XANDER: Oh Leslie all the way. Not even close. And honestly? I'm not sure I have a whole ton of faith in Xander to be able to nail a strong counter FTC to get enough votes against Leslie, but I could be wrong. 

 

The thing that is going to ruin final tribal for me is the absolute smugness from Abe/Xander/Evvie that has been present in their confessionals and their IMs to one another for the last week and a half. For that reason alone I would support a Leslie win. I think she played scared, but if she can make it 2 more votes i'll at least credit her with somehow outlasting a stoner even if it was a decision they made without her lol.

 Back to basics paid off.

This is such a double edged sword for me. I think there have been a lot of great things to come out of the back to basics theme, which includes the casting of more characters rather than experienced ORG players, as well as the no idols or twists. But I do think the back half of the game has suffered a little from the lack of connection between the two tribes through swaps and twists. It's the thing we see in modern survivor all the time. The lack of a swap leads to the tightest group at merge having a major advantage over the rest of the players. Not that this is BAD, it's just lackluster to watch in my humble opinion.

[Michael Snow]

I don't know where else to put this, so I'm leaving this nugget of information here: 


Leslie has said the phrase "That's real" a total of 119 times as of now:

Jamie-48 times
JR- 14 times
Evvie- 12 times
Shan- 8 times
Erik- 8 times
Abe- 6 times
Deshawn- 5 times
Sherea- 5 times
Denise- 3 times
Frosti- 3 times
Aaron-3 times
Xander- 2 times
Sara- 1 time
Heather-1 time




I think someone found a catchphrase. 

That's real. 

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

 Back to basics paid off.

This is such a double edged sword for me. I think there have been a lot of great things to come out of the back to basics theme, which includes the casting of more characters rather than experienced ORG players, as well as the no idols or twists. But I do think the back half of the game has suffered a little from the lack of connection between the two tribes through swaps and twists. It's the thing we see in modern survivor all the time. The lack of a swap leads to the tightest group at merge having a major advantage over the rest of the players. Not that this is BAD, it's just lackluster to watch in my humble opinion.

Ehh it's hard to say, this season really could have been Marquesas with an F9 flip (and I really like Marquesas as a Survivor season). It just sucks that it didn't happen.

Agree with Loveita that if the F2 is anything other than Abe/Xander (what I've been calling in the discord 5ever) or Evvie/Xander it will be a total shock.

[John]

The final 4 all played great games. The three person alliance dominAbed throughout, and Leslie survived a gauntlet to get where she is. Anyone will be a good winner.

The better players are in the game, but the better characters are all on the jury. 
 

[Danni Boatwright]

The final 4 all played great games. The three person alliance dominAbed throughout, and Leslie survived a gauntlet to get where she is. Anyone will be a good winner.

The better players are in the game, but the better characters are all on the jury. 

 

BOOOOOO stop being reasonable and nice!!!!!

[Tyler Frederickson]

And then there's Xander. Of the Stoners, by the way, it's important to mention that he is the only true ORG newb among them, and so the fact he's probably the least game savvy of those three shouldn't be surprising. At the same time, he's done a great job all season talking to people and making people think he's with them. I spent a good amount of time in the Lurker Discord arguing with our very own John about Xander's game a couple days ago, and will mostly rehash that here, but here's my big issue. Xander's best game moves were unintentional. Early in the premerge the Stoners had the good/boring/meta satellite ally strategy of each putting attention into a specific other - Abe/Deshawn, Evvie/Shan, and Xander/Sara. And honestly, one of the funnier story arcs this season for me is how much Xander HATED Sara in the premerge and all the shit he talked while purposely getting closer to her, only to find himself unable to vote her out when it finally came time. But anyways. Xander had been doing a fine enough job getting closer to Sara, but his accidental rule breaking with the screenshot is what really cemented that duo perception for people and shaped the narrative of the trio being Abe, Evvie, and Deshawn instead. It worked out great for him, and looking paired up with Sara was definitely part of the plan all along, but I think the screenshot really HELPED him there, unintentionally. The other big thing I can point to in Xander's game is his Leslie vote at 9 when Sara left. By losing his "partner", and refusing to vote for her, suddenly the underdogs saw him as someone who should want to work with them. Being the double agent like that rarely comes with respect, though. And like I said with Evvie: Personally, as a player, if someone is part of a plan to blindside me, fully okays it, and all that jazz, I lose a ton of respect for them if then they throw their vote. We're seeing that from Sara in the jury. If Xander makes it to the end, I think he's the one player whose chances change the most depending on who he's next to and how they act in FTC. Because right now, most of the jury and a lot of the lurkers just think he existed. Relatively nonoffensively? But also not in a way that inspires people to want to vote for him. 

Honestly, Loveita, this entire write-up is pure fire. I agree with literally everything you've stated, but wanted to mostly shout-out how *well* you've stated it. You are a gifted writer and your daily updates have been so incredibly helpful for understanding what is happening in this game--especially when it comes to what's happening in conversation. Keeping up on confessionals is more than enough for me, so, really anyone who is following convos and/or capping or re-capping them for the lurkers gets high praise from me.

But, back to Loveita, I just especially loved how you dissected Xander's game and all of his unintentional moves. Thanks to you I'm now wondering if there could be a strategy of "accidentally-screenshotting"-to-validate-a-fake-duo and then not-voting-out-your-visible-fake-ally-when-they-get-voted-out is something that can be applied to future games, since you're right about it seeming to validate his willingness to work with the other non-majority players. It was kind of unintentionally brilliant for getting people to believe he'd flip on his true alliance. There's no way he'll be able to articulate this in FTC, but a future player researching this game (hi Abe!) might.

Anyway, just wanted to say bravo on this masterpiece recap of the final 4. So, so good. *chef's kiss*

[Dean Kowalski]

The final 4 all played great games. The three person alliance dominAbed throughout, and Leslie survived a gauntlet to get where she is. Anyone will be a good winner.

The better players are in the game, but the better characters are all on the jury. 

 

I'm not listening to the person who made a typo there and asked one of us to fix it

[Loveita Adams]

Okay I am going to break down my view on the F2 and jury tomorrow at some point but in the mean time I need to post this here for posterity:

[Dean Kowalski]

Okay I am going to break down my view on the F2 and jury tomorrow at some point but in the mean time I need to post this here for posterity:

 

 

I'd like to add my spin-off prequel to the records

[Loveita Adams]

Alright let's close this thing out. I still think most of what I wrote at Final 4 applies now, so I won't really rehash how the last couple rounds went down. We're down to Abraham and Xander which surprised...very few people, including myself, and my feelings from before still stand pretty much the same:

ABRAHAM VS XANDER: If Abraham wins out, this is the F2 I expect. And like Abe vs Evvie, I'll begrudgingly support Abraham here but would maybe be hoping a little stronger for Abraham to blow the FTC and lose the game for himself. It's not that I think Xander deserves the win more than Evvie, probably the opposite. That's why it'd be funnier if the jury gave it to Xander over Abraham in this situation. 

 

Did Abraham play a better game than Xander? I mean...yes? I think so. I think he was more aggressive in determining the trajectory of the season and setting plans into motion. He had more strategic conversations with other people in the game than Xander, and probably more social ones with the entire cast too. He was targeted by fewer people over the course of the entire game, and by the time enough people woke up to the fact he should be targeted, he was able to win his way to the end on a mix of obsession, practice, and skill. 

But holy shit, can he be a condescending prick. He's already stated that he hopes to be a "model" for future players to follow. Let me just state, for the record: No.* We intended this game to be fully back to basics. We even tried to cast a group of ENTIRELY new players to ORGing, or at least this style of ORGing. Obviously, we failed to do that, but the last thing I want as a takeaway of this season is that players should be Stranded superfans who research everything and practice for hours and turn passion into obsession. Win or lose, I'm worried Abraham is never going to look back on this experience as something ENJOYABLE. Some of that might be because people like me can't appreciate his game like he's hoping we will, but I think a lot of it is going to be because of how the other players in his season do and will see him. I always get mad at people for comparing players to chess pieces (that just makes you another chess piece you idiot, you're in the game too), and while Abraham never did that, he certainly treated these people like they were nothing but pieces on a board. And frustratingly, they let him and he did it well. Multiple people on this jury had multiple opportunities to realize Abraham's sloppy controlling game (and some did and just ignored it), but just let him carry on with it. They had multiple opportunities to not just vote HIM out but ignore his influence and make voting decisions to weaken his game. No one took any of those opportunities. Each time someone finally realized they needed to, and tried to plan it, they were too late. And for that reason, Abraham deserves to win this game over Xander. 

HOWEVER. There is ONE, BIG, GLARING reason why this jury should immediately throw away ANY chance of voting for him and vote for Xander to win. His Opening Statement. 

 

jfc Abebot

Over 5000 words of pure, streamlined RECAP. I mean, I guess it's effective in that it's overwhelmed half of the jury and they might just vote him for writing the damn thing, but unfortunately, for those of us who actually know how the season happened, it's a mess of contradictions, inconsistencies, and errors. Why would you include the numbers of people's scores in the brick challenge but GET IT WRONG, like with Jean-Robert's tally?

Most importantly, it's a mess of badly constructed lies. Two ugly, introduction to graphic design idols, one found ON THE NIGHT OF THE MERGE. The pictures alone should make the jury laugh and scoff and understand immediately that the person who created the graphics on this website and their avatars NEVER would have made an idol look like that. But it doesn't end there. How did he find them? Password protected forums that only appeared for a limited time in the early hours of EST morning. That he magically was able to get into with his carefully researched list of possible passwords. 

Jesus Christ, he's fucking lucky no one else did their research this season. We've never had forums appear and disappear randomly. When we have password protected forums, they have (almost) always required clues to solve. I think someone got lucky once. Not just that, but these passwords are so specific that a cursory collection of words off the main Andes Wikipedia page ain't gonna cut it. Good luck randomly guessing something like "lacumbrepass", one of the multiple names for the now rarely used "Uspallata" or "Bemejo" pass, which the old Transandine Railway ran through. Especially while the forum is available for a few minutes at 3 AM. How is ANYONE BELIEVING THIS?! And I haven't even mentioned the weird "oh Jeff called for idols at 5 but he lied, they expired at 6 and he just said that to freak us out". Or the fact that all of them should have already known that Abraham was way too god damn paranoid to have EVER not played an idol when he wasn't immune. ESPECIALLY if he had a backup idol. I just...Shame on all of them. And if some of them suspect, but vote him regardless? I can't understand why you would support a player who you think is blatantly and NEEDLESSLY lying to you at the final tribal council? This man already did so much. This man already did too much. This cast should be insulted by thinking they would fall for this. They should vote Xander in pure protest at that point. 

 

Speaking of Xander, I haven't yet. Whoops. And I had such high hopes for him early. Honestly though, I DO have positive things to say about him here, not that I know whether anyone in the cast will respect it. We do still have a jury questioning to come though, so who knows how he'll do. But first of all, when I looked back on the early posts I made here, my summaries give Xander a lot of credit for forming the dynamics on Ancha. HE is the one who made the Stoner's alliance, and kept Deshawn as a fourth there on the outside. He's not wrong that he pushed the satellite ally idea too with Evvie and Abraham, and the Sara vs Heather dynamic. So for as little as he did in the merge, where I really do still think his game was largely unintentional in ways he was able to take advantage of, I do think he is correct in being the big mover and shaker on pre-merge Ancha and Abraham shouldn't actually be able to take any of the credit for that because he was busy accidentally ruining it all by melting down over Evvie talking to Shan like they were "supposed to".

I think Xander wrote a pretty solid opening statement too. I worried at first that maybe I was trying to read too many good things into it because I want him to genuinely do well here and see if he can't steal a win from Abraham both from his own skills and Abraham pushing people away. But I've been validated and my own summaries agree with him on how he's portraying the early game, and even a lot of the early merge. He also summarized Abraham's faults extremely succinctly and well. I have to give him props for that. Obviously Xander has a big error in his game in that he would have taken out Abraham 4th or 3rd to really secure his move and missed that shot by waiting too long, but I thought he summarized his game really well and showed some good awareness that I hope the jury is open to appreciating? But only if he continues it. As long as he doesn't start on about loyalty bullshit or insult the jury by talking about playing them or stringing them along in his answers, then I think he would deserve some votes to swing his way. This also, of course, will heavily depend on how Abraham does in questioning too. And if people catch on to the idols being fake. I really need that to happen. This cast deserves EVERYTHING that Abraham put them through otherwise. 

And with that, let's hope we get a fun and dramatic FTC questioning! The jury should hopefully give us some scathing reads of these finalists, so don't miss it!!!!!! You'll hear my final thoughts in the cast reveal.

^{*upon further reflection, people actively trying to be like Abraham in the future and being much worse at it might actually be really funny. Sure. Let's do it. A whole season of obsessive gamebots.}

[Loveita Adams]

Oh whoops, I completely forgot that I was going to do a rundown of the jury and my predictions before going into questioning, etc. FINAL FINAL THOUGHTS. 

JAIME: Jaime said a couple of times that she would vote for the person who found the idol, and Abraham has claimed to do that. But if she ends up believing that the idols are fake, will that work against Abraham in the same way? I'm really torn on where Jaime might vote, but I'm also not super confident in her believing the idols are fake. She said she looked at past seasons to see how idols worked though, so she SHOULD be one of the people to figure it out! Ugh. 55% Abraham, 45% Xander. 

ERIK: Erik has been a ghost since he got to jury, though he has been checking in. Hopefully he's been reading Ponderosa? Anyways, I feel like he's the type of guy to vote Xander because fuck Abraham and fuck this entire season, am I right? That's the vibe I'm getting. I'll put it 60% Xander, 40% Abraham.

SARA: I'm pretty torn on Sara because I think she's impressed by Abraham's game and even though she called out that she suspects the idols could be fake, it doesn't seem like she cares much about that when it comes to her vote. She hasn't commented on what she thinks about Xander's speech though, and probably has a few words to say to him as well. I'd put it at 65% Abraham, 35% Xander. 

HEATHER: Heather already pre-voted Xander and honestly I can't wait to see what she has typed up for her jury speech, and I say speech because I doubt there will be much questioning. Still, could Xander blow it for her vote? Unlikely, so I'll put it at 95% Xander, 5% Abraham. 

SHAN: I think Shan leans Xander here because she is SO over Abraham. But, Xander has never liked Shan, and if she isn't clear enough in her jury question about how much she hates Abraham now and is leaning towards Xander, then Xander fully might blow this thing by insulting her to her face like he has behind her back all season. I'll give that...75% Xander, 25% Abraham.

DESHAWN: I'm pretty sure that Deshawn will vote for Abraham here? He seemed to buy the idols straight away and didn't question it at all, but I guess we'll see if he scrutinizes them more as time goes on and other people doubt. If he thinks they are real, I don't see any way Xander convinces him to vote his way. However, I'm really not sure what Deshawn would do if he thinks the idols are fake. I'll put it at 85% Abraham, 15% Xander. 

JEAN-ROBERT: Jean-Robert is voting for Abraham. I think even if he finds out the idols are fake, he will respect the hustle and think he might have tried something like that too. I mean, he already fell for them, it looks like. Abraham and Jean-Robert have always had a frenemy level respect for each other and Abraham played a game that Jean-Robert would have been proud to play himself. 99% Abraham, because there's always room for error.

LESLIE: I really don't think Leslie wants Xander to win this game. I mean, she has literally said so. That's real. But if she thinks Abraham faked these idols and if he is really condescending towards her and Xander isn't? Who knows. Unfortunately, Xander also has the capacity to be rude and disrespectful to Leslie, so that could backfire as well. Let's give it 60% Abraham, 40% Xander, though she might come back to me post season and tell me Xander was way lower than that. Maybe I'm being optimistic. 

EVVIE: Evvie is voting for Xander. I don't see any way that they don't. They told both the Final 2 that before they left. I really hope that they call out these idols as fake and convince people of that and sway people to Xander's side in Ponderosa. They are a good talker after all - isn't that why Abraham didn't want them in the FTC? But the jury is also hostile to them, so we will see. They're hostile to Abraham too. 100% Xander, because there actually isn't room for error here (watch them flip, fucking watch).


If we just follow my odds, that's a 5-4 Abraham victory. Before breaking this down, I'd have said 6-3 Abraham or 5-4 Xander depending on if the idols are revealed as fake. Regardless, I think I'll be happy with a close vote, because Abraham probably won't be. 

 

[Danni Boatwright]

SHAN: I think Shan leans Xander here because she is SO over Abraham. But, Xander has never liked Shan, and if she isn't clear enough in her jury question about how much she hates Abraham now and is leaning towards Xander, then Xander fully might blow this thing by insulting her to her face like he has behind her back all season. I'll give that...75% Xander, 25% Abraham.


LESLIE: I really don't think Leslie wants Xander to win this game. I mean, she has literally said so. That's real. But if she thinks Abraham faked these idols and if he is really condescending towards her and Xander isn't? Who knows. Unfortunately, Xander also has the capacity to be rude and disrespectful to Leslie, so that could backfire as well. Let's give it 60% Abraham, 40% Xander, though she might come back to me post season and tell me Xander was way lower than that. Maybe I'm being optimistic. 

 

I think this is what I'm most nervous for in Xanders final tribal performance. Based on his responses in his final round confessional (where dean asked them to respectfully talk about their competitors) he made sure to drag both Shan and Leslie.... so much for respect lol. It's not lost on me that some of the people MOST LIKELY to vote for Xander are the ones he talks the most shit about. 

I think he will lose Leslie's vote personally, and with Jamie back in her ear i think the two of them will be voting together no matter what. Honestly i would just put her 60/40 as 100% voting however Jamie wants to lol.