#76147
Second week, congrats on surviving thus far! Things will only get more hectic as we get smaller in numbers to the end. We finally had our first Challenge and Tribal Council in one day... successfully (thanks Danny), and it definitely won't be the last time that happens. Buckle up.

  1. Since we are in the second week now, are you afraid of anything which may happen or pop up during it?
  2. What are some red flags to you in this game when talking to people? What is something that someone can do/say which starts to make you cautious of them?
  3. You've seen members of the other tribe online here and there, and you've now seen them in public a few times during the live challenges. Do you have any impressions or speculations on individuals or the overall dynamic of the opposing tribe?
  4. Code Breakers! It seems like you beasted yet another win for Ancha, and all of Kallpa flopped again with another challenge. How do you feel about all these things in the long term, for merge? You intimidated, or feeling at ease?
 

Dean Kowalski

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#76159
Episode 05: Bill-Tip Full-Tilt Boogie
The bill tip organ is a region found near the tip of the bill in several types of birds that forage particularly by probing. The region has a high density of nerve endings known as the corpuscles of Herbst. This consists of pits in the bill surface which in the living bird is occupied by cells that sense pressure changes. The assumption is that this allows the bird to perform 'remote touch', which means that it can detect movements of animals which the bird does not directly touch.
Day 9, 10
Been a very dead weekend. Last time we had a weekend off, it was quite similar so I'm not too worried about it. I did the usual chats with Evvie, Xander, and Deshawn throughout the weekend. Nothing too much game-wise as I told myself I wouldn't until it was needed or came up organically (you'll see how long I held out for that). I'm guessing at times like this, I need to embrace the game pause, but I can't help but think about the game anyway. It's really tough when you do try to put your best into a game like this and I think I need to continue to think about my mantra for the rest of the game. Gotta be chill. Don't let the paranoia creep in...is that clock slow or is it just me?

Day 11
Finally there was game talk to be had. As the threat of going to tribal for the first time looms over us, you can see the game talk start to drift in. Or maybe it's just me running around as usual!

Deshawn was receptive to the plan continuing. He even posted in Andeez Nuts about sticking to it. I think he really likes the idea of this Myself/Deshawn/Xander F3 and I suppose I don't really have a reason not to believe him. I would have heard otherwise from Evvie or Xander. Deshawn also wouldn't have suggested voting Sara a few days ago as well if he was working with her. I am very curious about the Shan/Deshawn relationship however. Deshawn and Heather don't seem to talk much so there really aren't that many connections on the girl side that Deshawn is making. There has to be something with Shan and Evvie though (at least I would think he'd play that angle if he had the opportunity) if he were to have some sort of back-up plan outside of Xander and Myself. We also discussed tribe swaps as we think one is coming. Deshawn thinks that a swap of 6-6 will happen but I keep telling him, you game runners wouldn't find that squirmy enough for us. I still see a scary 3 tribes of 4 scenario happening. Where there's 3-1, 1-3, and 2-2 pre-swap member splits.

Xander and I continue to work closely. We also talked about the plan still continuing. I noticed Xander make a little joke about the vote not being for him. I love to see a little anxiety in my alliance members, as it makes me feel like I am making the right decision working with them. When you trust someone, you always look for those little checks of encouragement. Hell, I've done it a million times to Evvie and Xander already. I reassured Xander of course and reiterated our current tribe situation. We've really weaved things together well (at least it seems that way) and there shouldn't be any area of the tribe where we're not getting information. However...

My worries about Evvie are still there. I'm doing everything I can to hopefully repair things. We didn't talk much game over the weekend. I really didn't want to put that kind of stuff on her. Before the challenge we talked briefly about the Sara vs Heather plan. It seemed like she still thought we were voting Sara. Woops, that's not good. I guess Xander and I are moving a little too fast and neglecting to keep Evvie up to date? The whole point of this weekend was to re-establish trust and it's looking like I kind of botched it. I need something to make sure she's still tight with us. We ended up agreeing that Heather is the better of the two to go instead of Sara. I hope this didn't come off as me dictating who she should vote for and more like 'I think the plan has shifted to this because, _____'. I really have to keep a grasp on this relationship.

One that is blossoming on its own is with Sara. It's pretty easy to get on her good side if you constantly tell her every time Heather brings up her name. She's mentioned how far we're going to go as a group which is pretty good to hear. I mentioned to Xander that Sara is pretty loyal to have around and he agreed. It's possible Sara sticks around longer than Shan in that case which I'm kind of okay with. Sara actually asked if I would talk to Shan about the vote and see if she would vote with us. So it's good to know that Sara doesn't have any connections to the girls really.

It's really hard to trust Shan after the whole situation on Day 7 and I don't really believe her when she says we're definitely together. I talked to her about there being a fight between Heather and Sara and we have a choice of which side we want to go with. She said she didn't mind either and I said sticking with Sara is probably better just for challenge strength. I think she said she would confirm with Evvie if that sounded like a good plan. It's the same situation I have with Evvie. I worry I might be giving her too much ammo for her to plan my demise. She has to go before Sara for sure. Xander was telling me her relationship with me is probably better than I'm making it out to be. Which is possible and would be a nice surprise. I just have this bad feeling about a Shan/Evvie/Heather group somehow pulling in Deshawn to take Xander or Myself down. That would be the smartest move for that group right now if they think we're gaming too hard. But that would involve Heather talking to Shan, which I don't think has really happened.

Heather continues to talk about Sara being the vote. She mentioned that she'll talk to Xander and then said he was on board pretty quick. Xander said the last time they talked about the vote was 2-3 days ago. Man I have no idea if she's trying to get numbers and say someone has already agreed before they actually have or what. It's good to know that she doesn't realize how close Xander and I are however. She also mentioned not really talking to Shan or Deshawn and isn't sure about where they would vote. She asked if I would talk to Shan about the vote. So that's two people who have asked me to talk to Shan. That's a pretty good sign that Shan doesn't really have many relationships besides Evvie and Myself.

Looks like should we go to tribal, Heather will easily go home. Once the threat of another 4 forming is gone, we can either go after Shan or Sara. I'm leaning more towards the former.

Day 11 - Post Challenge
Welp...I didn't expect things to go THAT well but...sure?
 
Since we are in the second week now, are you afraid of anything which may happen or pop up during it?
TRIBE SWAP. It's coming. We all know it's coming. TRIBE SWAP! TRIBE SWAP! TRIBE SWAP! I always say, the tribe swap is incredibly difficult to maneuver sometimes. I am scared out of my mind for what kind of split we will see. I have a pretty good feeling it will be the 3-1, 1-3, 2-2 permutation I mentioned earlier. If I get on the majority Ancha member tribe, smooth sailing to either a challenge win or an easy Kallpa vote. If I get on the even Ancha-Kallpa tribe, it's either betray someone ruthlessly, or go out swinging with rocks. If I get on a majority Kallpa tribe, I'm totally screwed. I'll most likely have to carry a challenge or two as I could see a majority Kallpa group throwing a challenge just to get one of us Ancha out of the game. If Deshawn's idea of a 6-6 tribe swap happens, there's better chances of surviving however.
What are some red flags to you in this game when talking to people? What is something that someone can do/say which starts to make you cautious of them?
That's a difficult question. I feel like this is a question perfect for other people on my tribe to realize what I'm doing. I think anyone who is overtly looking to strategize or jump into game talk is a red flag. I've been trying my best to not be that person, but it's just so fun playing hard. Another red flag could be someone not talking enough game with you. Sometimes I worry about this on our tribe. I think with Xander, he's a great example of green flags all the way. Never an issue diving into game talk with him or just bringing up something someone has said to each other. Red flag I think I'm starting to see is maybe Deshawn? I feel like he's very tight lipped about game talk sometimes. It's hard to get him to dive into the real stuff. It really makes me wonder what sort of connections he has out there because of this. Is he holding back on me or is that just what he's like? Another red flag is not being on the same page. I worry about that with Evvie. Especially with the confusion between Sara and Heather, I wonder if she's seeing me leave her out of discussions and it's coming up as a red flag for her. In turn, I'm doing the same thing back and seeing her as a red flag. I think Monday before the 'challenge' (see: swap) I need to have some serious game talk about our place in the game and what we should do moving forward. I need to secure that line with her before we potentially split up until the merge and so we can still talk from opposite ends. Also game runners - are whispers allowed at anytime in the game? For example, during a challenge in a challenge thread or on the challenge beach thread? Could be something useful to bring up to all the Ancha before we swap.
You've seen members of the other tribe online here and there, and you've now seen them in public a few times during the live challenges. Do you have any impressions or speculations on individuals or the overall dynamic of the opposing tribe?
So this is an interesting question, especially after finding out Aaron went home. A lot of us were surprised by that. It seemed like Aaron was well connected just based on what group chats we saw him enter or how active he was online. It's starting to look like Frosti and JR have some sort of Axis of Evil over there. Xander thinks that Erik is very well connected and I think I agree. I noticed even today that they made a new group chat called 'Host' (come on, we thought of that shit on Day 1 or 2) and the people online at the time were Erik, Jaime, JR, and Leslie. We're definitely all looking at that kind of stuff and it's definitely making some sort of impression on us. Also this is totally another question to see where our heads are at with the connections on the other side before WE TRIBE SWAP.
Code Breakers! It seems like you beasted yet another win for Ancha, and all of Kallpa flopped again with another challenge. How do you feel about all these things in the long term, for merge? You intimidated, or feeling at ease?
Man, my studying of the old seasons is definitely paying off big time. My only worry is that I'm clearly becoming some sort of challenge beast. I had to use my single-handed win to bolster my tribe relationships, and the best person for this was Evvie. I told her I studied and wanted to take on the challenge just to take the burden of a loss should it come. I just wanted to reiterate to Evvie as much as possible that I want to work with her and Xander long-term. It's really the only way I can repair what happened on Day 7 and hopefully get her on my side. It was clear she was becoming a little frustrated with how I was running the challenge as well, (mentioning how the other tribe was guessing multiple colors and getting further than us) but I knew if the tribe just trusted in my system, we could win the challenge. And it ended up working out well! I was getting a little worried halfway through that my math was wrong as a few people mentioned that certain colors HAD to be in certain spots, but I knew I understood how the game was played extremely well and had gone through the logic of the puzzle multiple times the night before (I was up until 3am studying old challenges just to do well today). Anyway, this got Evvie and I back to talking some real game. She mentioned that we're definitely F3 strong and that our plan is as good as ever. I'd like to think that's a real confirmation? I will always be on guard with her but I think we're moving in the right direction.

As for long term, looking at it from a simplistic view, it's going to be a Pagonging of Kallpa come a merge. But we all know it's never that simple. The next two tribals will really solidify everything (should we merge at 10) and we'll be able to coast to F7. It's a pretty good way to convince all of Ancha to stay together and be strong, but it's one thing advise people and another for them to take your advice. My only hope is that I do get that good tribe swap juju and make it on an Ancha strong tribe.

Survivor Gods, Stranded Gods, Incan Gods...do me this one solid and I will honor you forever!
Also I was thinking it too.
 

Abraham

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#76169
Day 12 - Tribe Swap Permutations

It took me this long to realize my 3-1, 1-3, 2-2 doesn't make any sense because they only have 5 Kallpa. Wooooow.

So the permutations could be...

3 Tribes, 4 Members each
My current theory for the next two rounds. Allows for a 10 merge and to make the game more intense for us. Just seems like something the game runners would do.

3 Kallpa - 1 Ancha
3 Ancha - 1 Kallpa
1 Kallpa - 3 Ancha

Not too bad but still scary to be on that Kallpa end. 1/3 chance of getting screwed
2 Kallpa - 2 Ancha
2 Kallpa - 2 Ancha
1 Kallpa - 3 Ancha

More accurate of a tribe mix. 2 equal tribes for the drama and then 1 easy tribe. So 2/3 chance of getting screwed.
0 Kallpa - 4 Ancha
4 Kallpa - 0 Ancha
1 Kallpa - 3 Ancha

This one doesn't make sense at all so I doubt this would ever happen. 0/3 chance of getting screwed (Jeffy pls)
3 Kallpa - 1 Ancha
2 Ancha - 2 Kallpa
0 Kallpa - 4 Ancha

Whoa, this one is hectic AF. 2/3 chance of getting screwed and it's an attempt to thin the numbers for Ancha.
2 Tribes, 6 Members each
There's also the weird case of 6-6. Sorry Deshawn, but I really don't see it happening.

3 Ancha - 3 Kallpa
4 Ancha - 2 Kallpa

Pretty good situation all things considered. Going to rocks with this many is a pain though
1 Ancha - 5 Kallpa
6 Ancha - 0 Kallpa

Oof, being that one Ancha is like heartbreak material. I don't think the Anchas would all agree to throw the challenge just for one Ancha to survive on the other side, so that's a 1 person battle.
5 Ancha - 1 Kallpa
2 Ancha - 4 Kallpa

50/50 shot of getting screwed. In this case, Ancha needs to win a challenge badly.
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Abraham

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#76223
Day 12 - Post Event
Well I guess there's no tribe swap now!? Frosti went and quit and all the other Anchas happily rejoiced with the idea that we broke the guy. I'm thinking something must have went down during tribal to cause him to quit. It was a huge surprise to see Aaron go this week so I'm guessing that they were close.

And so, with the departure of Frosti, we were forced to add....JR to the tribe. Ugh, fucking great. I'm assuming you guys pick our aliases to correspond to our personality from our interviews, so I'm expecting JR to be just like himself. Sending Deshawn over to the other tribe was pretty much my idea and came from just picking the tribe leader as a good representative. I was also thinking, in the event Deshawn is repicking tribes, he'll do a good job to pick Myself/Xander/Sara to be with him and hopefully have the voting power to take out any Kallpa we're forced to be with. INSTEAD, Deshawn was sent to the other tribe. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

The one caveat here, is the wording Jeff used. He mentioned that these are ambassadors for our tribes. We've seen ambassadors before in Survivor, so is it possible Deshawn is just heading over for a short visit? Jeff also mentioned that this was 'until further notice'. Meaning, until he says switch back before the challenge? Also, to quote the man himself:
Jeffy said:
As I said before, you were signing up for a brand-new adventure. It would behoove you to take full advantage of this opportunity.
 
It would BEHOOVE YOU to take FULL ADVANTAGE of this OPPORTUNITY. If that doesn't scream 'get info from the other tribe for tomorrow's challenge' I dunno what does. Anyway, I told everyone on our tribe (except JR) that we need to think about this and to not assume Deshawn is gone forever. Let's not give any info to JR and let him tell us anything he wants. This way, his visit here is meaningless. Evvie mentioned to a few of Ancha that we should just throw the challenge should JR stick around for the challenge and tribal, just so we could get him out easily and keep Deshawn safe. It seems like a good idea in theory, but Xander was also thinking that the game runners wouldn't set us up to want to intentionally throw a challenge just like that. I was also thinking, I don't think it would be fair to the great game Deshawn is playing if he were to just go home that easily without a real fighting chance. This is definitely temporary. All signs point to it being so. Onto tribe member discussions!
Evvie and I switched between keeping it light and talking game. I think things with her are finally starting to repair, but Xander isn't convinced. He thinks that Evvie is starting to wall or pull away from us. I had the same feelings too but she's been having a lot of tough times IRL with stuff going on, so I really don't blame her for not being the usual chatty player. She ended up telling me everything JR said to her. He mentioned exactly what we suspected - Aaron left and then Frosti quit because of it. He even mentioned that JR, Leslie, and Jaime were a group. The vote target was originally going to be Erik (planned by Aaron) until JR decided to go with the girls instead. I guess they've been really having to play hard over there. Aaron seemed like my equivalent on the other tribe, so it shows how fast you can go when people are worried about your gameplay. So I think things are getting better with Evvie. I think I just need to believe until she gives me a reason not to. Heather has been talking more and more with me so I think if something were to happen, she might tell me?

Xander and I talked the usual game and stuff. Nothing super important, other than that he was getting worried about Evvie. I'm guessing he's in the same position I was last week noticing Evvie pull away. Like I said above, I do think things are getting better and told Xander he needs to just keep at it with her. Xander mentioned that Evvie was giving the same information from JR so I said that's probably a good measure of Evvie's loyalty. Something also happened where Xander said to Evvie 'I heard JR is talking to you' and she seemed defensive about where he heard that. Xander tried to play it off like it was obvious I would share all info between the three of us, but I do see why that might be worrisome. Why would Evvie not expect our info to freely travel between the 3 of us? Honestly, this is probably just all 3 of us having our own spiral moments and trying to contain ourselves. I think maybe I should do a check-in tomorrow with Evvie and see how she's feeling anxiety wise and regarding her relationship with Xander. How to pull that off though...

Sara is starting to really grow on me. It's very strange how fast she's becoming an easy person to talk to. She loves talking game so it's great to bounce ideas off her. Xander thinks we have her in our pocket from telling her the Heather stuff and that she would do anything we asked. I'm starting to think he's right. Sara continues to mention to me that the four of us (Myself/Xander/Deshawn/Sara) is still the clear way to the end of the game. She still pushes for F4 and for us to duke it out there. Dude, I know you intend to get rid of me at 4. It's so painfully obvious and I know from talking to Xander and Deshawn, who I have way better relationships with than you do. Regardless, I think Sara might be someone who replaces Shan for F6 in my mind. I do think she believes in the F4, but at this point if I vote out Evvie, I don't get her jury vote in a million years. I'm kind of stuck with taking her to the end over Sara.

Shan has been the usual game talk. She told me JR was talking to her and giving similar info that everyone else was receiving (except me). We talked about the idea of throwing the challenge to vote our JR and also getting Deshawn back safe to our tribe or at the merge. She's still set on that group of 5 (Myself/Shan/Evvie/Xander/Deshawn) which sounds like good news to me. I just have to continue keeping this relationship alive, especially in the event JR does vote with us and there's a possibility of the girls voting with JR to take Myself/Xander/Sara out. I think I have made enough strong relationships to prevent that from happening, but you really never know what they're thinking is best for their game. If Shan IS playing a strong/smart game, she has considered this girls alliance and swinging JR over to take the power. But I do have to have some faith in my relationship with Shan compared to what Xander and Sara have with her, and in the worst case scenario, one of them two would go instead of myself. R-right!?

Heather has been talking a little more game than usual. She mentioned her paranoia was high which I always mention is a good sign of trust. Heather mentioning she was worried allowed me to tell her that we had to stick together and reiterate how close we are to the merge. I think I have to keep this line open with her, especially now with this JR bullshit. If I continue to keep my relationship with Heather, there's a chance she tells me something is up should the girls have a new plan. The fact Evvie and Shan have both mentioned throwing to get JR out is a good thing, but it could also be an evil plan to blindside Myself/Xander/Sara. So I need to continue to talk with Heather tomorrow and throughout the challenge, just to make sure I know where she's going.

JR is 🤮. He hardly spoke two sentences to me while speaking to everyone else. He must have an idea of what kind of game I'm playing. I really don't want to talk to him as I just know he's trying to get as much info out of us as he can, and it's not going to benefit us in any way by allowing it. I want this guy gone. ASAP. NOW.
So in conclusion for Day 12, fuck this shit and bring Deshawn back...pls.
 

Abraham

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